Will Canada and Mexico retaliate on Trump tariffs?

Yes, Canada and Mexico did retaliate when former U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs, especially during the 2018–2019 trade tensions. This period offers a solid historical precedent for how trade partners might respond to protectionist U.S. policies.

Background: Trump Tariffs

In 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%) imports under national security grounds (Section 232). These affected key allies including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.

Canada and Mexico's Retaliation (Historical Precedent)

Canada:

• Retaliated with dollar-for-dollar tariffs targeting U.S. goods like:

o Whiskey

o Maple syrup

o Toilet paper

o Steel products

• Focused on hitting politically sensitive U.S. industries.

Mexico:

• Imposed tariffs on about $3 billion worth of U.S. goods:

o Pork

o Cheese

o Apples

o Steel

• Targeted U.S. agricultural products to pressure lawmakers in farm-heavy states.

Did a Trade War Start?

Not in the full sense like the U.S.-China trade war, but there was a brief trade skirmish between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico:

• Tensions rose but were resolved with the renegotiation of NAFTA, leading to the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).

• Steel and aluminum tariffs were eventually lifted in mid-2019.

Could It Happen Again?

Yes, if similar protectionist tariffs are reintroduced, retaliation is likely, and trade tensions could escalate. Both Canada and Mexico have:

• Legal frameworks and WTO mechanisms for response.

• Past experience of retaliating quickly and strategically.

Summary:

Yes, Canada and Mexico have retaliated in the past, and there's a clear historical precedent from 2018–2019 showing that trade tensions can quickly rise into a limited trade war. If similar Trump-era tariffs are reinstated, retaliation is highly possible.